The Arbil-Doha line

Almost every segment of Turkish society is being seriously tested these days… Whatever the solution proposals are and however different the attitudes displayed, it will show as a litmus paper the real supporters and opponents of bloodspill in this land. What follows the funeral of the three PKK terrorist leaders in Paris may blow the fire but as well it may be a successfully passed test indicating the social maturity.

As I have already specified in the previous writing, the fact that the Imralı process negotiations will now take place in Arbil instead of Oslo is of a more symbolic value than assumed. It has more than just symbols to it. It is obvious that Europe is a significant part in the Kurdish issue. Oslo was equivalent to the European Kurdish politics gravity center rather than just a Northern Europe capital that has a political weight.

The fact that Arbil has been chosen instead of Oslo means that Arbil government, which utterly came into existence due to American dominance and tolerance, has now gained weight in the Kurdish issue. In this regard it would not be an overstatment to say that not only the Kurdish political movement centered in Arbil but the influence of the US that issued a bad check here as well is now going to determine the ongoing process. The Ankara-Arbil line, by indirection Washington-Ankara, can be seen as an influence to the internal dynamics of the Washington-Arbil line.

It is no coincidence Qatar that has risen in terms of diplomacy, military and economics since the Arab spring, has made signs that it was not going to stay away form the Kurdish issue. Qatar, being a rather small country, has demonstrated first-order activity in both diplomatic and military ways in issues ranging from Palestine and Arab spring to military intervention in Libya to Syrian civil war, and this activity does not definitely come from Qatar itself.

Let alone the role that the Qatar television Al Jazeera played in the Arab spring, the Arabs broke new ground opening a Kurdish issue meeting for discussion on the international scale. These complete the Arbil-Doha line. Though they have not yet explicitly become a party to the issue, it is highly probable that the Arabs will come forward within the frame of the Kurdish issue, especially in what concerns Arab-Kurdish and even Turkish-Kurdish relations. This progress should be viewed not only as the regional players’ willpower to solve their own problems but rather as an effort to give control over the regional dynamics to appropriate players.

It is hard not to see that it has become impossible to control the energy accumulated in the region as a result of internal conflicts and dynamics that occured particularly after the occupation of Iraq.

We can guess Europe as a whole will not wait and keep out of the course of events in the region, the Kurdish issue in particular. In terms of both political influence and intellectual interest in the region, especially in the framework of balances encoded by the UK, Europe will not keep quiet in the phase when a new game is being set up in the region.

Who would deny that the murder in Paris, in terms of political consequences, was an attempt to interfere with the process? It is too soon to make a cool-headed analysis of whether the Ankara-Arbil-Doha line is edging Oslo out. Though it might not seem directly related, the question of whether the local and native dynamics in the region or rather Kurdish and Turkish versions of Levanitnes will define the process is still on the empty exam paper – the exam that we have to pass today. We should keep hoping that the voice raised by the deep ancient experience of this land rebounds in the common conscience.

lgili YazlarEnglish, Siyaset

Editr emreakif on January 18, 2013



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